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Great Unknowns

1. the broad geographic reach of the current recession; the increased burden and cost of regulation;

2. the economic impact of the obliterated (but previously important) shadow banking system and the associated reduction in securitized lending market capacity;

3. the more important role of government in the private sector;

black-egg

photo by Pickelweasel

4. the possible impact of protectionism and trade barriers;

5. the degree to which individual and institutional investors have become risk-averse and have been “turned off” to equities; and

6. most important, the unusual causes of the current economic downturn  and uncertainty of business confidence that follows from the deleveraging of debt on bank and consumer balance sheets.

read full article from Doug Kass on TheStreet.com

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